Peter MuReading Journal

October 15, 2024

The Uncertainty Solution: How to Invest With Confidence in the Face of the Unknown

The Uncertainty Solution: How to Invest With Confidence in the Face of the Unknown

John M. Jennings

![](https://readwise-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/media/reader/parsed_document_assets/218351244/ittZEYafRAo7tfSu9Ns17Dq_IiBrFry90vsPbxNo-D0-img0_45DHjMS.jpg)

5:30 AM

We turn away from crowded restaurants and highways, smoothing demand.

5:31 AM

We avoid busy restaurants and highways to make things less crowded.

✎ NOTE

Like bees defending the hive, we respond to signals in the media and market, creating booms, busts, and fads

5:32 AM

Just like bees protect their home, we react to what we see and hear in the news and stores. This leads to times when things become very popular, times when things lose their value, and trends that come and go quickly.

✎ NOTE

investor decision making tends to anticipate the economy’s changed circumstances, and the empirical evidence supports this claim.

10:48 AM

Surprises move markets, not expected news, because market prices reflect the range of expected news.

10:48 AM

The fact that the stock market operates as a complex adaptive system is an essential concept to put in our toolbox of mental

10:48 AM

Investors who insist on understanding the causes for the market’s moves risk focusing on faulty causality or inappropriately anchoring on false explanations. Many of the big moves in the market are not easy to explain.”⁶

10:48 AM

Professor Hsieh determined that the amount of alpha available to the hedge fund industry as a whole was about $30 billion. Thi

10:48 AM